Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 85840.085955 90564.236189 95283.982580 100349.813039 105629.784276 110967.329398 116767.488946
2024-12-22 77351.624590 84537.631122 91915.969635 100047.621859 108747.409649 117765.408236 127809.244425
2024-12-29 72609.152912 81579.842181 90989.043028 101572.429315 113122.890493 125324.178613 139165.111669
2025-01-05 68620.550578 78918.157168 89914.056906 102493.548069 116449.554549 131421.210446 148659.239020
2025-01-12 64809.047719 76097.463038 88343.795696 102563.983767 118567.452800 135966.430249 156256.954510
2025-01-19 61413.943759 73488.076309 86776.532671 102415.373159 120242.234732 139855.310860 162987.976119
2025-01-26 59682.940966 72621.231132 87042.298529 104214.733711 124009.102648 146011.913428 172216.953370
2025-02-02 58148.655035 71863.710567 87331.177969 105950.322633 127632.710342 151961.353312 181193.664013
2025-02-09 56233.139080 70548.918704 86877.552813 106738.460326 130093.279155 156532.750260 188567.729636
2025-02-16 53977.817643 68724.050736 85730.539111 106625.664583 131429.149522 159750.239964 194340.865282
2025-02-23 52265.398030 67468.812636 85184.584321 107156.377285 133466.340953 163745.792595 201001.220492
2025-03-02 50419.544577 65973.506277 84281.806622 107196.897925 134869.361397 166960.717367 206725.795559
2025-03-09 49318.643632 65374.444353 84456.488092 108548.153478 137874.977604 172130.119580 214859.227246
2025-03-16 47403.513826 63701.086804 83268.013516 108197.537100 138798.546485 174810.016253 220040.117705
2025-03-23 46594.381770 63376.206302 83705.787650 109814.813329 142098.575391 180338.647871 228656.045158
2025-03-30 45530.957520 62684.757422 83651.642154 110794.047185 144599.334422 184900.117008 236122.111560
2025-04-06 44102.542779 61474.993072 82903.670058 110868.718566 145954.531666 188054.126030 241880.205149
2025-04-13 42646.524012 60179.986059 82003.196480 110710.445801 146987.110600 190792.640542 247124.147050
2025-04-20 42210.470860 60194.472961 82751.600289 112625.764054 150607.783319 196719.334905 256305.739238
2025-04-27 41772.117879 60184.548155 83453.154452 114472.830747 154144.672031 202557.919024 265412.829103
2025-05-04 40920.912589 59596.208048 83383.035399 115311.470105 156396.564231 206804.227139 272566.486446
2025-05-11 39703.747614 58480.202430 82593.208493 115191.451068 157406.519916 209489.434405 277778.637349
2025-05-18 38827.192276 57797.190903 82346.542493 115756.135740 159278.510847 213251.465530 284347.072084